Published: June 12, 2013
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The government is predicting record corn and soybean
yields this year despite intense spring showers that have delayed
planting, damaged crops already in the ground and prevented farmers from
sowing all of their seeds. But the projections are based on estimates
made before the heavy rains came about how many acres of crops will be
planted.
Steve Hebert for The New York Times
Parts of the Midwest have gone from drought last year
to oversaturated fields with this spring’s heavy rains. Rob Korff, a
farmer near Norborne, Mo., says his corn should be waist-high by now.
The Department of Agriculture, in a report released on Wednesday,
estimated that 14 billion bushels of corn will be produced this year, a
forecast that, if it holds true, would crush the previous record of 13.1
billion set four years ago. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates report also forecast that a record 3.39 billion bushels of
soybeans would be harvested.
The projections assume that 97.3 million acres of corn and 77.1 million
acres of soybeans will be planted this year — estimates that the
department gathered during a survey of farmers this year. Analysts
expect that fewer acres will actually be planted. The department will
conduct another survey this month and release more accurate planting
numbers at the end of the month.
“The projections are still highly tentative,” Joseph W. Glauber, the U.S.D.A.’s chief economist, wrote in an e-mail.
As of Monday, about 4.5 million acres of corn and 22 million acres of
soybeans remained unplanted, according to Christopher A. Hurt, an
agricultural economist at Purdue University. By this time last year, all
of the nation’s corn crop had already been planted.
Record rainfall and flooding across vast swaths of the Farm Belt this
spring mucked up fields, keeping many farmers from getting out with
their heavy farm equipment to sow crops. Many reported that they planted
their corn about a month later than usual this spring, and some said
they had yet to plant any of their soybeans.
The late planting of corn could hurt the crops’ health because they may
not pollinate until late July or August, when temperatures are typically
at their peak. Hot weather thwarts the pollination process, which could
prevent corn plants from producing their normal yields. Had the corn
been planted on time, the pollination would have occurred earlier in the
summer, when temperatures are not usually as high.
Because of the late planting, the U.S.D.A. did reduce its forecast for
corn production by 135 million bushels from last month’s report. Still,
agriculture experts say they expect the production numbers to come down
even more.
“Anybody around the Midwest knows those numbers, they’re not right,” Professor Hurt said.
But even a moderate decrease in the U.S.D.A.’s current projections would
still mean a much more bountiful crop than last year, when one of the
most widespread droughts in the nation’s history led to a harvest of
about 10.8 billion bushels.
Last year’s poor production leaves a lot of room for improvement this
year, which could translate into an ease on commodity prices.
“It still looks like a reasonable crop,” Professor Hurt said. “That’s
going to keep us from having extraordinarily high prices, as we had from
the 2012 crop. This is going to be beneficial in terms of our basic
food supplies and our basic inflation in our food.”
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/13/us/record-corn-and-soybean-yields-are-predicted.html?src=recg
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